Forecasts by experts from the automotive industry show that the Russian market for cars expects a decrease in demand of approximately 5.5% in 2014.
On the contrary, it is expected that the sales of Chinese brand car models will remain popular thanks to their affordable price, on the other hand, the Russian market expects a steady decline in the share of the Lada brand. However, overall, we can consider the forecasts for the Russian car market to be optimistic. If we believe the most pessimistic scenarios, car sales on the Russian market in 2014 should not fall by more than 2.54 million. Optimists provide data from February of this year, when the Russian market with cars recorded an increase in sales by 20% compared to January 2014, despite the fact that demand decreased by 2% compared to February 2013.
Another area where the Russian market has been experiencing a decline since 2013 is the Russian market for alcoholic beverages. This is primarily a reaction to the increase in excise duty on alcohol. According to statistics, the production volume of cognac on the Russian market has decreased by 23.9% since 2012, vodka by 12.3%, beer by 8.5% and wine by 7.7%. As for beer, in the years 2009-2013 the Russian market even saw a five-fold increase in consumption tax. Such a sharp increase in tax, which occurred during the last years, was not for the entire history of the operation of the Russian market with alcohol. It should be noted that the price of alcohol will continue to rise in the future. Although the Russian market has felt a decrease in the production of legal alcohol, this does not mean that Russians have stopped drinking. He just switches to other alternatives to alcohol. According to the producers of the Russian market, it is impossible for alcohol prices to continue to rise so sharply. The increase in consumption tax does not correspond to the increase in buyers’ salaries. For this reason, consumers are starting to switch from legal production to illegal and alternative. Legal vodka thus becomes unaffordable for a significant part of the population. The price of one bottle of vodka increased almost threefold in the years 2009-2013, while the incomes of the population, on the other hand, did not increase at all. Currently, the Russian market for alcoholic products is the most expensive for the country’s population. Now the Russian alcohol market can be divided into 3 sectors: legal, illegal and alternative production. Alternative production represents liquids containing alcohol for dual use, these are schnapps, medical extracts and vodka, which is produced illegally in garages and sold so-called under the counter. According to statistics, the share of legal vodka on the Russian market in the last twenty years was less than 50%, now it reaches 35%. On the other hand, the Russian market for alternative products is growing more and more. In 2009, the Russian market with alternative alcohol amounted to 450-500 million liters, in 2013 it was already 800 million. In 2014, it is assumed that the Russian market with alternative alcohol will already reach 1 billion liters. On the contrary, the Russian market for legal alcohol is now available only to people who are willing to pay a high or very high price for alcohol.
